77 publications

2021

• Keeley, J. E., Guzman-Morales, J., Gershunov, A., Syphard, A. D., Cayan, D., Pierce, D. W., ... Brown, T. J. (2021). Ignitions explain more than temperature or precipitation in driving Santa Ana wind fires. Science Advances, 7(30). doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abh2262
• Schwarz, L., Hansen, K., Alari, A., Ilango, S. D., Bernal, N., Basu, R., ... Benmarhnia, T. (2021). Spatial variation in the joint effect of extreme heat events and ozone on respiratory hospitalizations in California. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(22), 9. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2023078118
• Gershunov, A., Morales, J. G., Hatchett, B., Guirguis, K., Aguilera, R., Shulgina, T., ... Tardy, A. (2021). Hot and cold flavors of southern California's Santa Ana winds: their causes, trends, and links with wildfire. Climate Dynamics, 16. doi: 10.1007/s00382-021-05802-z
• Aguilera, R., Corringham, T., Gershunov, A., Leibel, S., & Benmarhnia, T. (2021). Fine particles in wildfire smoke and pediatric respiratory health in California. Pediatrics, 147(4). doi: 10.1542/peds.2020-027128
• Aguilera, R., Corringham, T., Gershunov, A., & Benmarhnia, T. (2021). Wildfire smoke impacts respiratory health more than fine particles from other sources: observational evidence from Southern California. Nature Communications, 12(1). doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-21708-0
• Mehta, S., Vashishtha, D., Schwarz, L., Corcos, I., Gershunov, A., Guirguis, K., ... Benmarhnia, T. (2021). Racial/ethnic disparities in the association between fine particles and respiratory hospital admissions in San Diego county, CA. Journal of Environmental Science and Health Part a-Toxic/Hazardous Substances & Environmental Engineering. doi: 10.1080/10934529.2021.1887686

2020

• Cao, Q., Gershunov, A., Shulgina, T., Ralph, F. M., Sun, N., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2020). Floods due to atmospheric rivers along the US West Coast: The role of antecedent soil moisture in a warming climate. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 21(8), 1827-1845. doi: 10.1175/jhm-d-19-0242.1
• Skaff, N. K., Cheng, Q., Clemesha, R. E. S., Collender, P. A., Gershunov, A., Head, J. R., ... Remais, J. V. (2020). Thermal thresholds heighten sensitivity of West Nile virus transmission to changing temperatures in coastal California. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 287(1932). doi: 10.1098/rspb.2020.1065
• Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., DeFlorio, M. J., Shulgina, T., Delle Monache, L., Subramanian, A. C., ... Ralph, F. M. (2020). Four atmospheric circulation regimes over the North Pacific and their relationship to California precipitation on daily to seasonal timescales. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(16). doi: 10.1029/2020gl087609
• McElroy, S., Schwarz, L., Green, H., Corcos, I., Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., & Benmarhnia, T. (2020). Defining heat waves and extreme heat events using sub-regional meteorological data to maximize benefits of early warning systems to population health. Science of the Total Environment, 721(137678). doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137678
• Abatzoglou, J. T., Hatchett, B. J., Fox-Hughes, P., Gershunov, A., & Nauslar, N. J. (2020). Global climatology of synoptically-forced downslope winds. International Journal of Climatology. doi: 10.1002/joc.6607
• Schwarz, L., Malig, B., Guzman-Morales, J., Guirguis, K., Ilango, S. D., Sheridan, P., ... Benmarhnia, T. (2020). The health burden fall, winter and spring extreme heat events in the in Southern California and contribution of Santa Ana Winds. Environmental Research Letters, 15(5). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab7f0e
• Ilango, S. D., Weaver, M., Sheridan, P., Schwarz, L., Clemesha, R. E. S., Bruckner, T., ... Benmarhnia, T. (2020). Extreme heat episodes and risk of preterm birth in California, 2005-2013. Environment International, 137(Unsp 105541). doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2020.105541
• Leibel, S., Nguyen, M., Brick, W., Parker, J., Ilango, S., Aguilera, R., ... Benmarhnia, T. (2020). Increase in pediatric respiratory visits associated with Santa Ana wind-driven wildfire smoke and PM2.5 levels in San Diego County. Annals of the American Thoracic Society, 17(3), 313-320. doi: 10.1513/AnnalsATS.201902-150OC
• Aguilera, R., Gershunov, A., Ilango, S. D., Guzman-Morales, J., & Benmarhnia, T. (2020). Santa Ana winds of Southern California impact PM2.5 with and without smoke from wildfires. Geohealth, 4(1). doi: 10.1029/2019gh000225

2019

• Corringham, T. W., Ralph, F. M., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., & Talbot, C. A. (2019). Atmospheric rivers drive flood damages in the western United States. Science Advances, 5(12). doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aax4631
• Barlow, M., Gutowski, W. J., Gyakum, J. R., Katz, R. W., Lim, Y. K., Schumacher, R. S., ... Min, S. K. (2019). North American extreme precipitation events and related large-scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends. Climate Dynamics, 53(11), 6835-6875. doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04958-z
• Malig, B. J., Wu, X. M., Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., & Basu, R. (2019). Associations between ambient temperature and hepatobiliary and renal hospitalizations in California, 1999 to 2009. Environmental Research, 177(108566). doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.108566
• Williams, A. P., Abatzoglou, J. T., Gershunov, A., Guzman-Morales, J., Bishop, D. A., Balch, J. K., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2019). Observed impacts of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in california. Earths Future, 7(8), 892-910. doi: 10.1029/2019ef001210
• Gershunov, A., Shulgina, T., Clemesha, R. E. S., Guirguis, K., Pierce, D. W., Dettinger, M. D., ... Ralph, F. M. (2019). Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers. Scientific Reports, 9(9944). doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-46169-w
• Aguilera, R., Gershunov, A., & Benmarhnia, T. (2019). Atmospheric rivers impact California's coastal water quality via extreme precipitation. Science of the Total Environment, 671, 488-494. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.318
• Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Shulgina, T., Clemesha, R. E. S., & Ralph, F. M. (2019). Atmospheric rivers impacting Northern California and their modulation by a variable climate. Climate Dynamics, 52(11), 6569-6583. doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4532-5
• Ralph, F. M., Wilson, A. M., Shulgina, T., Kawzenuk, B., Sellars, S., Rutz, J. J., ... Wick, G. A. (2019). ARTMIP-early start comparison of atmospheric river detection tools: how many atmospheric rivers hit northern California's Russian River watershed?. Climate Dynamics, 52(7-8), 4973-4994. doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4427-5
• Guzman-Morales, J., & Gershunov, A. (2019). Climate change suppresses Santa Ana winds of Southern California and sharpens their seasonality. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(5), 2772-2780. doi: 10.1029/2018gl080261

2018

• Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Clemesha, R. E. S., Shulgina, T., Subramanian, A. C., & Ralph, F. M. (2018). Circulation drivers of atmospheric rivers at the North American West Coast. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(22), 12576-12584. doi: 10.1029/2018gl079249
• Vashishtha, D., Sieber, W., Hailey, B., Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., & Al-Delaimy, W. K. (2018). Outpatient clinic visits during heat waves: findings from a large family medicine clinical database. Family Practice, 35(5), 567-570. doi: 10.1093/fampra/cmy013
• Clemesha, R. E. S., Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Small, I. J., & Tardy, A. (2018). California heat waves: their spatial evolution, variation, and coastal modulation by low clouds. Climate Dynamics, 50(11-12), 4285-4301. doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3875-7
• Shields, C. A., Rutz, J. J., Leung, L. Y., Ralph, F. M., Wehner, M., Kawzenuk, B., ... Nguyen, P. (2018). Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP): project goals and experimental design. Geoscientific Model Development, 11(6), 2455-2474. doi: 10.5194/gmd-11-2455-2018
• Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., & Pierce, D. W. (2018). Heat wave probability in the changing climate of the Southwest US. Climate Dynamics, 50(9-10), 3853-3864. doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3850-3
• Sherbakov, T., Malig, B., Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., & Basu, R. (2018). Ambient temperature and added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in California from 1999 to 2009. Environmental Research, 160, 83-90. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2017.08.052

2017

• Polade, S. D., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., Dettinger, M. D., & Pierce, D. W. (2017). Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions. Scientific Reports, 7(10783). doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-11285-y
• Gershunov, A., Shulgina, T., Ralph, F. M., Lavers, D. A., & Rutz, J. J. (2017). Assessing the climate-scale variability of atmospheric rivers affecting western North America. Geophysical Research Letters. doi: 10.1002/2017GL074175
• Clemesha, R. E. S., Gershunov, A., Iacobellis, S. F., & Cayan, D. R. (2017). Daily variability of California coastal low cloudiness: A balancing act between stability and subsidence. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(7), 3330-3338. doi: 10.1002/2017gl073075

2016

• Guzman-Morales, J., Gershunov, A., Theiss, J., Li, H. Q., & Cayan, D. (2016). Santa Ana Winds of Southern California: Their climatology, extremes, and behavior spanning six and a half decades. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(6), 2827-2834. doi: 10.1002/2016gl067887
• Clemesha, R. E. S., Gershunov, A., Iacobellis, S. F., Williams, A. P., & Cayan, D. R. (2016). The northward march of summer low cloudiness along the California coast. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(3), 1287-1295. doi: 10.1002/2015gl067081
• Grotjahn, R., Black, R., Leung, R., Wehner, M. F., Barlow, M., Bosilovich, M., ... Prabhat (2016). North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends. Climate Dynamics, 46(3-4), 1151-1184. doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2638-6

2015

• Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., & Cayan, D. R. (2015). Interannual variability in associations between seasonal climate, weather, and extremes: wintertime temperature over the Southwestern United States. Environmental Research Letters, 10(12). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124023
• Lavers, D. A., Ralph, F. M., Waliser, D. E., Gershunov, A., & Dettinger, M. D. (2015). Climate change intensification of horizontal water vapor transport in CMIP5. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(13), 5617-5625. doi: 10.1002/2015gl064672
• Cavanaugh, N. R., Gershunov, A., Panorska, A. K., & Kozubowski, T. J. (2015). The probability distribution of intense daily precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(5), 1560-1567. doi: 10.1002/2015gl063238

2014

• Schwartz, R. E., Gershunov, A., Iacobellis, S. F., & Cayan, D. R. (2014). North American west coast summer low cloudiness: Broadscale variability associated with sea surface temperature. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(9), 3307-3314. doi: 10.1002/2014gl059825
• Polade, S. D., Pierce, D. W., Cayan, D. R., Gershunov, A., & Dettinger, M. D. (2014). The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes. Scientific Reports, 4(4364). doi: 10.1038/srep04364
• Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Tardy, A., & Basu, R. (2014). The impact of recent heat waves on human health in California. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 53(1), 3-19. doi: 10.1175/jamc-d-13-0130.1

2013

• Rodo, X., Pascual, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Gershunov, A., Stone, D. A., Giorgi, F., ... Dobson, A. P. (2013). Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?. Climatic Change, 118(3-4), 625-640. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0744-1
• Polade, S. D., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., Dettinger, M. D., & Pierce, D. W. (2013). Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(10), 2296-2301. doi: 10.1002/grl.50491

2012

• Gershunov, A., & Guirguis, K. (2012). California heat waves in the present and future. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(L18710). doi: 10.1029/2012gl052979
• Semenza, J. C., Caplan, J. S., Buescher, G., Das, T., Brinks, M. V., & Gershunov, A. (2012). Climate change and microbiological water quality at California beaches. Ecohealth, 9(3), 293-297. doi: 10.1007/s10393-012-0779-1
• Macias, D., Landry, M. R., Gershunov, A., Miller, A. J., & Franks, P. J. S. (2012). Climatic control of upwelling variability along the western North American coast. Plos One, 7(1). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0030436

2011

• Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Schwartz, R., & Bennett, S. (2011). Recent warm and cold daily winter temperature extremes in the Northern Hemisphere. Geophysical Research Letters, 38(L17701). doi: 10.1029/2011gl048762

2010

• Cayan, D. R., Das, T., Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., Tyree, M., & Gershunov, A. (2010). Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107(50), 21271-21276. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0912391107
• OrtizBevia, M. J., Perez-Gonzalez, I., Alvarez-Garcia, F. J., & Gershunov, A. (2010). Nonlinear estimation of El Nino impact on the North Atlantic winter. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 115(D21123). doi: 10.1029/2009jd013387
• Ari, T. B., Gershunov, A., Tristan, R., Cazelles, B., Gage, K., & Stenseth, N. C. (2010). Interannual variability of human plague occurrence in the western United States explained by tropical and North Pacific Ocean climate variability. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 83(3), 624-632. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0775

2009

• Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., & Iacobellis, S. F. (2009). The great 2006 heat wave over California and Nevada: Signal of an increasing trend. Journal of Climate, 22(23), 6181-6203. doi: 10.1175/2009jcli2465.1
• Favre, A., & Gershunov, A. (2009). North Pacific cyclonic and anticyclonic transients in a global warming context: possible consequences for Western North American daily precipitation and temperature extremes. Climate Dynamics, 32(7-8), 969-987. doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0417-3
• Kozubowski, T. J., Panorska, A. K., Qeadan, F., Gershunov, A., & Rominger, D. (2009). Testing Exponentiality Versus Pareto Distribution via Likelihood Ratio. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation, 38(1), 118-139. doi: 10.1080/03610910802439121

2008

• Ben Ari, T., Gershunov, A., Gage, K. L., Snall, T., Ettestad, P., Kausrud, K. L., & Stenseth, N. C. (2008). Human plague in the USA: the importance of regional and local climate. Biology Letters, 4(6), 737-740. doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0363
• White, W. B., Gershunov, A., & Annis, J. (2008). Climatic influences on Midwest drought during the twentieth century. Journal of Climate, 21(3), 517-531. doi: 10.1175/2007jcli1465.1
• Gershunov, A., & Douville, H. (2008). Extensive summer hot and cold spells under current and possible future climatic conditions: Europe and North America. Climate extremes and society (pp. 20). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

2007

• Panorska, A. K., Gershunov, A., & Kozubowski, T. J. (2007). From diversity to volatility: probability of daily precipitation extremes. Nonlinear Dynamics in Geosciences (pp. 465-484). : Springer New York. doi: 10.1007/978-0-387-34918-3_26

2006

• Favre, A., & Gershunov, A. (2006). Extra-tropical cyclonic/anticyclonic activity in North-Eastern Pacific and air temperature extremes in Western North America. Climate Dynamics, 26(6), 617-629. doi: 10.1007/s00382-005-0101-9
• Alfaro, E. J., Gershunov, A., & Cayan, D. (2006). Prediction of summer maximum and minimum temperature over the central and western United States: The roles of soil moisture and sea surface temperature. Journal of Climate, 19(8), 1407-1421. doi: 10.1175/jcli3665.1

2005

• Alfaro, E. J., Pierce, D. W., Steinemann, A. C., & Gershunov, A. (2005). Relationships between the irrigation-pumping electrical loads and the local climate in Climate Division 9, Idaho. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 44(12), 1972-1978. doi: 10.1175/jam2315.1

2004

• White, W. B., Gershunov, A., Annis, J. L., McKeon, G., & Syktus, J. (2004). Forecasting Australian drought using southern, hemisphere modes of sea-surface temperature variability. International Journal of Climatology, 24(15), 1911-1927. doi: 10.1002/joc.1091
• Gershunov, A., & Roca, R. (2004). Coupling of latent heat flux and the greenhouse effect by large-scale tropical/subtropical dynamics diagnosed in a set of observations and model simulations. Climate Dynamics, 22(2-3), 205-222. doi: 10.1007/s00382-003-0376-7
• Alfaro, E. J., Gershunov, A., & Cayan, D. R. (2004). A method for prediction of California summer air surface temperature. EOS Trans. AGU, 85(51), 553, 557-558. doi: 10.1029/2004EO510001

2003

• Gershunov, A., & Cayan, D. R. (2003). Heavy daily precipitation frequency over the contiguous United States: Sources of climatic variability and seasonal predictability. Journal of Climate, 16(16), 2752-2765. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2752:hdpfot>2.0.co;2
• Westerling, A. L., Gershunov, A., Brown, T. J., Cayan, D. R., & Dettinger, M. D. (2003). Climate and wildfire in the western United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84(5), 595-+. doi: 10.1175/bams-84-5-595

2002

• Westerling, A. L., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., & Barnett, T. P. (2002). Long lead statistical forecasts of area burned in western US wildfires by ecosystem province. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 11(3-4), 257-266. doi: 10.1071/wf02009

2001

• Biondi, F., Gershunov, A., & Cayan, D. R. (2001). North Pacific decadal climate variability since 1661. Journal of Climate, 14(1), 5-10. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0005:npdcvs>2.0.co;2
• Gershunov, A., Schneider, N., & Barnett, T. (2001). Low-frequency modulation of the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship: Signal or noise?. Journal of Climate, 14(11), 2486-2492. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2486:lfmote>2.0.co;2

2000

• Gershunov, A., Barnett, T. P., Cayan, D. R., Tubbs, T., & Goddard, L. (2000). Predicting and downscaling ENSO impacts on intraseasonal precipitation statistics in California: The 1997/98 event. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 1(3), 201-210. doi: 10.1175/1525-7541(2000)001<0201:padeio>2.0.co;2

1999

• Gershunov, A., Barnett, T., & Cayan, D. (1999). North Pacific interdecadal oscillation seen as factor in ENSO-related North American climate anomalies. EOS Trans. AGU, 80(3), 25-30. doi: 10.1029/99EO00019

1998

• Gershunov, A. (1998). ENSO influence on intraseasonal extreme rainfall and temperature frequencies in the contiguous United States: Implications for long-range predictability. Journal of Climate, 11(12), 3192-3203. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<3192:eioier>2.0.co;2
• Gershunov, A., & Barnett, T. P. (1998). Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79(12), 2715-2725. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2715:imoet>2.0.co;2
• Gershunov, A., & Barnett, T. P. (1998). ENSO influence on intraseasonal extreme rainfall and temperature frequencies in the contiguous United States: Observations and model results. Journal of Climate, 11(7), 1575-1586. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<1575:eioier>2.0.co;2
• Gershunov, A., Michaelsen, J., & Gautier, C. (1998). Large-scale coupling between the tropical greenhouse effect and latent heat flux via atmospheric dynamics. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 103(D6), 6017-6031. doi: 10.1029/97jd03520

1996

• Gershunov, A., & Michaelsen, J. (1996). Climatic-scale space-time variability of tropical precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 101(D21), 26297-26307. doi: 10.1029/96jd01382
• Gershunov, A., & Michaelsen, J. (1996). Vertical variability of water vapor in the midlatitude upper troposphere. Contributions to Atmospheric Physics [Beitraege zur Physik der Atmosphaere.], Wiesbaden, Germany, 69(1), 205-214.