Publications


Corringham, T. W., McCarthy, J., Shulgina, T., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., & Ralph, F. M. (2022). Climate change contributions to future atmospheric river flood damages in the western United States. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 13747. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-15474-2
Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Hatchett, B., Shulgina, T., DeFlorio, M. J., Subramanian, A. C., Guzman-Morales, J., Aguilera, R., Clemesha, R., Corringham, T. W., Delle Monache, L., Reynolds, D., Tardy, A., Small, I., & Ralph, F. M. (2022). Winter wet-dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California. Climate Dynamics, 21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06361-7
Naughten, S. M., Aguilera, R., Gershunov, A., Benmarhnia, T., & Leibel, S. (2022). A Perspective on Pediatric Respiratory Outcomes During California Wildfires Due to Smoke and PM2.5 Exposure. Frontiers in Pediatrics, 10, 891616. https://doi.org/10.3389/fped.2022.891616
Michaelis, A. C., Gershunov, A., Weyant, A., Fish, M. A., Shulgina, T., & Ralph, F. M. (2022). Atmospheric river precipitation enhanced by climate change: A case study of the storm that contributed to California’s Oroville Dam crisis. Earths Future, 10(3), 12. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002537
Dimitrova, A., McElroy, S., Levy, M., Gershunov, A., & Benmarhnia, T. (2022). Precipitation variability and risk of infectious disease in children under 5 years for 32 countries: a global analysis using Demographic and Health Survey data. Lancet Planetary Health, 6(2), E147–E155.
McElroy, S., Ilango, S., Dimitrova, A., Gershunov, A., & Benmarhnia, T. (2022). Extreme heat, preterm birth, and stillbirth: A global analysis across 14 lower-middle income countries. Environment International, 158, 8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2021.106902
Schwarz, L., Castillo, E. M., Chan, T. C., Brennan, J. J., Sbiroli, E. S., Carrasco-Escobar, G., Nguyen, A., Clemesha, R. E. S., Gershunov, A., & Benmarhnia, T. (2022). Heat Waves and Emergency Department Visits Among the Homeless, San Diego, 2012–2019. American Journal of Public Health, 112(1), 98–106. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306557
Hatchett, B. J., Benmarhnia, T., Guirguis, K., VanderMolen, K., Gershunov, A., Kerwin, H., Khlystov, A., Lambrecht, K. M., & Samburova, V. (2021). Mobility data to aid assessment of human responses to extreme environmental conditions. Lancet Planetary Health, 5(10), E665–E667.
Clemesha, R. E. S., Gershunov, A., Lawson, D. M., Longcore, T., MacDonald, B., Booker, M., Munson, B., & O’Connor, K. (2021). A high-resolution record of coastal clouds and fog and their role in plant distributions over San Clemente Island, California. Environmental Research Communications, 3(10), 16. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ac2894
Keeley, J. E., Guzman-Morales, J., Gershunov, A., Syphard, A. D., Cayan, D., Pierce, D. W., Flannigan, M., & Brown, T. J. (2021). Ignitions explain more than temperature or precipitation in driving Santa Ana wind fires. Science Advances, 7(30). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abh2262
Gershunov, A., Morales, J. G., Hatchett, B., Guirguis, K., Aguilera, R., Shulgina, T., Abatzoglou, J. T., Cayan, D., Pierce, D., Williams, P., Small, I., Clemesha, R., Schwarz, L., Benmarhnia, T., & Tardy, A. (2021). Hot and cold flavors of southern California’s Santa Ana winds: their causes, trends, and links with wildfire. Climate Dynamics, 16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05802-z
Schwarz, L., Hansen, K., Alari, A., Ilango, S. D., Bernal, N., Basu, R., Gershunov, A., & Benmarhnia, T. (2021). Spatial variation in the joint effect of extreme heat events and ozone on respiratory hospitalizations in California. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(22), 9. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2023078118
Aguilera, R., Corringham, T., Gershunov, A., Leibel, S., & Benmarhnia, T. (2021). Fine particles in wildfire smoke and pediatric respiratory health in California. Pediatrics, 147(4). https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2020-027128
Aguilera, R., Corringham, T., Gershunov, A., & Benmarhnia, T. (2021). Wildfire smoke impacts respiratory health more than fine particles from other sources: observational evidence from Southern California. Nature Communications, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21708-0
Mehta, S., Vashishtha, D., Schwarz, L., Corcos, I., Gershunov, A., Guirguis, K., Basu, R., & Benmarhnia, T. (2021). Racial/ethnic disparities in the association between fine particles and respiratory hospital admissions in San Diego county, CA. Journal of Environmental Science and Health Part A-Toxic/Hazardous Substances & Environmental Engineering. https://doi.org/10.1080/10934529.2021.1887686
Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., DeFlorio, M. J., Shulgina, T., Delle Monache, L., Subramanian, A. C., Corringham, T. W., & Ralph, F. M. (2020). Four atmospheric circulation regimes over the North Pacific and their relationship to California precipitation on daily to seasonal timescales. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(16). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl087609
Cao, Q., Gershunov, A., Shulgina, T., Ralph, F. M., Sun, N., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2020). Floods due to atmospheric rivers along the US West Coast: The role of antecedent soil moisture in a warming climate. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 21(8), 1827–1845. https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-19-0242.1
Skaff, N. K., Cheng, Q., Clemesha, R. E. S., Collender, P. A., Gershunov, A., Head, J. R., Hoover, C. M., Lettenmaier, D. P., Rohr, J. R., Snyder, R. E., & Remais, J. V. (2020). Thermal thresholds heighten sensitivity of West Nile virus transmission to changing temperatures in coastal California. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 287(1932). https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.1065
McElroy, S., Schwarz, L., Green, H., Corcos, I., Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., & Benmarhnia, T. (2020). Defining heat waves and extreme heat events using sub-regional meteorological data to maximize benefits of early warning systems to population health. Science of the Total Environment, 721. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137678
Schwarz, L., Malig, B., Guzman-Morales, J., Guirguis, K., Ilango, S. D., Sheridan, P., Gershunov, A., Basu, R., & Benmarhnia, T. (2020). The health burden fall, winter and spring extreme heat events in the in Southern California and contribution of Santa Ana Winds. Environmental Research Letters, 15(5). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7f0e
Abatzoglou, J. T., Hatchett, B. J., Fox-Hughes, P., Gershunov, A., & Nauslar, N. J. (2020). Global climatology of synoptically-forced downslope winds. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6607
Ilango, S. D., Weaver, M., Sheridan, P., Schwarz, L., Clemesha, R. E. S., Bruckner, T., Basu, R., Gershunov, A., & Benmarhnia, T. (2020). Extreme heat episodes and risk of preterm birth in California, 2005-2013. Environment International, 137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.105541
Leibel, S., Nguyen, M., Brick, W., Parker, J., Ilango, S., Aguilera, R., Gershunov, A., & Benmarhnia, T. (2020). Increase in pediatric respiratory visits associated with Santa Ana wind-driven wildfire smoke and PM2.5 levels in San Diego County. Annals of the American Thoracic Society, 17(3), 313–320. https://doi.org/10.1513/AnnalsATS.201902-150OC
Aguilera, R., Gershunov, A., Ilango, S. D., Guzman-Morales, J., & Benmarhnia, T. (2020). Santa Ana winds of Southern California impact PM2.5 with and without smoke from wildfires. Geohealth, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gh000225
Corringham, T. W., Ralph, F. M., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., & Talbot, C. A. (2019). Atmospheric rivers drive flood damages in the western United States. Science Advances, 5(12). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax4631
Barlow, M., Gutowski, W. J., Gyakum, J. R., Katz, R. W., Lim, Y. K., Schumacher, R. S., Wehner, M. F., Agel, L., Bosilovich, M., Collow, A., Gershunov, A., Grotjahn, R., Leung, R., Milrad, S., & Min, S. K. (2019). North American extreme precipitation events and related large-scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends. Climate Dynamics, 53(11), 6835–6875. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04958-z
Malig, B. J., Wu, X. M., Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., & Basu, R. (2019). Associations between ambient temperature and hepatobiliary and renal hospitalizations in California, 1999 to 2009. Environmental Research, 177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2019.108566
Williams, A. P., Abatzoglou, J. T., Gershunov, A., Guzman-Morales, J., Bishop, D. A., Balch, J. K., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2019). Observed impacts of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in california. Earths Future, 7(8), 892–910. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001210
Gershunov, A., Shulgina, T., Clemesha, R. E. S., Guirguis, K., Pierce, D. W., Dettinger, M. D., Lavers, D. A., Cayan, D. R., Polade, S. D., Kalansky, J., & Ralph, F. M. (2019). Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of atmospheric rivers. Scientific Reports, 9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46169-w
Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Shulgina, T., Clemesha, R. E. S., & Ralph, F. M. (2019). Atmospheric rivers impacting Northern California and their modulation by a variable climate. Climate Dynamics, 52(11), 6569–6583. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4532-5
Aguilera, R., Gershunov, A., & Benmarhnia, T. (2019). Atmospheric rivers impact California’s coastal water quality via extreme precipitation. Science of the Total Environment, 671, 488–494. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.318
Ralph, F. M., Wilson, A. M., Shulgina, T., Kawzenuk, B., Sellars, S., Rutz, J. J., Lamjiri, M. A., Barnes, E. A., Gershunov, A., Guan, B., Nardi, K. M., Osborne, T., & Wick, G. A. (2019). ARTMIP-early start comparison of atmospheric river detection tools: how many atmospheric rivers hit northern California’s Russian River watershed? Climate Dynamics, 52(7–8), 4973–4994. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4427-5
Guzman-Morales, J., & Gershunov, A. (2019). Climate change suppresses Santa Ana winds of Southern California and sharpens their seasonality. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(5), 2772–2780. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl080261
Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Clemesha, R. E. S., Shulgina, T., Subramanian, A. C., & Ralph, F. M. (2018). Circulation drivers of atmospheric rivers at the North American West Coast. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(22), 12576–12584. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl079249
Vashishtha, D., Sieber, W., Hailey, B., Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., & Al-Delaimy, W. K. (2018). Outpatient clinic visits during heat waves: findings from a large family medicine clinical database. Family Practice, 35(5), 567–570. https://doi.org/10.1093/fampra/cmy013
Clemesha, R. E. S., Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Small, I. J., & Tardy, A. (2018). California heat waves: their spatial evolution, variation, and coastal modulation by low clouds. Climate Dynamics, 50(11–12), 4285–4301. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3875-7
Shields, C. A., Rutz, J. J., Leung, L. Y., Ralph, F. M., Wehner, M., Kawzenuk, B., Lora, J. M., McClenny, E., Osborne, T., Payne, A. E., Ullrich, P., Gershunov, A., Goldenson, N., Guan, B., Qian, Y., Ramos, A. M., Sarangi, C., Sellars, S., Gorodetskaya, I., … Nguyen, P. (2018). Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP): project goals and experimental design. Geoscientific Model Development, 11(6), 2455–2474. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2455-2018
Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., & Pierce, D. W. (2018). Heat wave probability in the changing climate of the Southwest US. Climate Dynamics, 50(9–10), 3853–3864. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3850-3
Sherbakov, T., Malig, B., Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., & Basu, R. (2018). Ambient temperature and added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in California from 1999 to 2009. Environmental Research, 160, 83–90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2017.08.052
Polade, S. D., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., Dettinger, M. D., & Pierce, D. W. (2017). Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions. Scientific Reports, 7. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11285-y
Gershunov, A., Shulgina, T., Ralph, F. M., Lavers, D. A., & Rutz, J. J. (2017). Assessing the climate-scale variability of atmospheric rivers affecting western North America. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074175
Clemesha, R. E. S., Gershunov, A., Iacobellis, S. F., & Cayan, D. R. (2017). Daily variability of California coastal low cloudiness: A balancing act between stability and subsidence. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(7), 3330–3338. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl073075
Guzman-Morales, J., Gershunov, A., Theiss, J., Li, H. Q., & Cayan, D. (2016). Santa Ana Winds of Southern California: Their climatology, extremes, and behavior spanning six and a half decades. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(6), 2827–2834. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl067887
Clemesha, R. E. S., Gershunov, A., Iacobellis, S. F., Williams, A. P., & Cayan, D. R. (2016). The northward march of summer low cloudiness along the California coast. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(3), 1287–1295. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl067081
Grotjahn, R., Black, R., Leung, R., Wehner, M. F., Barlow, M., Bosilovich, M., Gershunov, A., Gutowski, W. J., Gyakum, J. R., Katz, R. W., Lee, Y. Y., Lim, Y. K., & Prabhat. (2016). North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends. Climate Dynamics, 46(3–4), 1151–1184. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2638-6
Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., & Cayan, D. R. (2015). Interannual variability in associations between seasonal climate, weather, and extremes: wintertime temperature over the Southwestern United States. Environmental Research Letters, 10(12). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124023
Lavers, D. A., Ralph, F. M., Waliser, D. E., Gershunov, A., & Dettinger, M. D. (2015). Climate change intensification of horizontal water vapor transport in CMIP5. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(13), 5617–5625. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl064672
Cavanaugh, N. R., Gershunov, A., Panorska, A. K., & Kozubowski, T. J. (2015). The probability distribution of intense daily precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(5), 1560–1567. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl063238
Schwartz, R. E., Gershunov, A., Iacobellis, S. F., & Cayan, D. R. (2014). North American west coast summer low cloudiness: Broadscale variability associated with sea surface temperature. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(9), 3307–3314. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl059825
Polade, S. D., Pierce, D. W., Cayan, D. R., Gershunov, A., & Dettinger, M. D. (2014). The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes. Scientific Reports, 4. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep04364